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Measuring Brexit Costs

As of 2016, the value of traded goods and services each week between Ireland and the UK is €1.2 billion. Meanwhile over a year since the UK referendum we still don’t have any real clarity on what the final agreement between the EU and the UK might look like. Given such uncertainty, what can businesses do to identify some of the trade-related implications as a result of Brexit under different scenarios?

Many of these scenarios point to the probability of the UK leaving the customs union, and businesses involved in Ireland-UK trade are now assessing the detail of what the financial impact could be. Unless there is a tariff-free EU/UK trade agreement, Irish goods will be subject to tariffs and the EU’s external border will run through Ireland, with a customs regime between the two jurisdictions. For Irish exporters with imported inputs in their products there are significant implications.

Businesses should consider identifying their impacted supply chains now and quantify the financial consequences of potential additional customs duties, VAT and trade compliance costs. Software such as that developed by KPMG can help businesses deconstruct their supply chains and identify where the costs, bottlenecks and opportunities may lie.

Interrogating your data from different angles is critical. Using VAT and Customs filing data, the software can produce a bespoke report quantifying the key customs duty and VAT impacts arising from Brexit. The tool maps the flows of goods into and out of the UK, giving visibility over the elements of the supply chain that are most exposed to additional cost or supply chain risk as a result of Brexit.

Businesses can then work to identify specific solutions to the issues raised, which could involve alternative supplier sourcing, revision of trade terms or changes to the logistics process. Regardless of possible eventual Brexit outcomes for Ireland, businesses who understand their supply chains now and use innovative technology to quantify product, customer or supply chain exposures will be amongst those best placed for the post-Brexit world – whatever that brings.

Marie Armstrong is a Tax Partner with KPMG in Dublin.

For more details on planning for Brexit and KPMG's indirect tax impact assessment tool, download the pdf by clicking here.
KPMG Ireland is a Platinum sponsor of the Export Industry Awards.

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